A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
